UFC 291 Expert Picks & Betting Odds

By Blake Roberts Founder & Editor in Chief Updated: 27 July 2023

Blake Roberts Founder & Editor in Chief

Blake Roberts is the founder of Betting.US and is currently heading the creative team as Editor in Chief. Born and raised in Morgantown, West Virginia, Blake is a great sports fan, with football and basketball being his favorite. He’s our trusted voice for all betting-related matters.

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The fights on the main card of UFC 291 feature some of the most technical and flamboyant strikers in the UFC. With very little in the way of bad blood between opponents, the lead-up to the fights has been centered more around the technical abilities of each of the fighters rather than on the rivalries that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing.

Fireworks are guaranteed with the entire main card consisting of gifted strikers who possess knockout power. Read on for a preview of each fight on the main card of UFC 291 and find out the UFC best betting sites.

Welterweight Bout: Michael Chiesa vs Kevin Holland

The main card kicks off with a three-round contest between #12 ranked welterweight Michael Chiesa and the unranked Kevin Holland. Both fighters have lost two of their last three. However, Chiesa has not fought since November 2021 while “Trailblazer” Kevin Holland has been far more active, having competed in the octagon five times since Chiesa’s last outing.

Despite Holland being unranked in the division, he holds a slight edge over the #12-ranked Michael Chiesa. He has explained his absence from the sport due to a recurring back injury, stating that he did not believe it was worth the risk of competing while not at 100%. On the other hand, Kevin Holland has stayed fairly active since his “retirement” after his loss to Khamzat Chimaev. Since his “retirement”, he’s gone 50:50 with a TKO win against Santiago Ponzinibbio and a knockout loss against Stephen Thompson in the fourth round of a main event fight.

In the upcoming bouts, oddsmakers have Kevin Holland as a slight favorite, and we agree: he’s the younger fighter who has been more active and empowered with the momentum of a knockout win.

Lightweight Bout: Tony Ferguson vs Bobby Green

Between 2013 and 2019, Tony Ferguson won 12 fights in a row – even holding the belt as an interim champion for a short period of time. During his undefeated run, “El-Cucuy” lived up to his nickname as the boogeyman – he seemed unstoppable. However, things would take a turn for the worse when he fought Justin Gaethje for the Lightweight Championship in 2020, where he endured a vicious knockout in the 5th round after enduring more than 20 minutes of a mostly one-sided beating.

Since the loss, Tony Ferguson has not been the same and has lost all four fights since, suffering another brutal knockout to Michael Chandler in 2022. In the upcoming bout, he’s going up against veteran lightweight Bobby Green, who has a record of 29 wins and 14 losses, with 10 wins coming by TKO.

Of his last five fights, Bobby Green has lost two and won two, with the other being deemed a no-contest. Based on Tony Ferguson’s tragic decline in form, we think Bobby Green will take the win, especially since he will be extra motivated to put in a strong performance for his rumored retirement bout.

Welterweight Bout: Stephen Thompson vs Michel Pereira

Staying true to the striking prowess of the rest of the card, this bout between two Karate fighters will produce some high-flying action. Both fighters are veterans with a reputation for their in-fight acrobatics and unique fighting styles. At the same time, they are adored by the fanbase for being extremely well-spoken, polite athletes outside of the octagon.

Michel Pereira has a professional record of 28 wins and 11 losses, while Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson has 17 wins and 6 losses. While Wonderboy’s losses have been against the most elite fighters of the division, Michel Pereira has shown that his unpredictable style can sometimes work against him. We think it will be pretty even in their upcoming fight, but give a slight edge to Wonderboy based on the caliber of competition he has faced in his career.

Light Heavyweight Bout: Jan Blachowicz vs Alex Pereira

Many believed this fight to have changed status to a championship fight when reigning champion Jamahal Hill recently vacated the belt due to injury. However, the UFC has clarified that this is not the case, and the bout remains a three-round contest. However, it’s safe to say that the winner will be granted an immediate title shot against former champion Jiri Prochazka.

Moving past his famous rivalry with Israel Adesanya, Alex Pereira is a former world champion kickboxer in the light heavyweight division, and also a former champ of the middleweight division in the UFC. His rival, Jan Blachowicz, is a former UFC champion. Interestingly, Blachowicz lost the title against Pereira’s teammate and grappling coach, Glover Texeira.

While the oddsmakers have rated the contest as even, we are giving a slight edge to Alex Pereira. At middleweight, he was always compromised due to a drastic weight cut. Now, he’ll be fighting much closer to his natural weight, which means he will possess more speed, power, and stamina than we’ve seen since he joined the UFC. Either way, we don’t expect this bout to go the distance since both fighters are hard-hitting powerhouses famous for knocking their opponents out.

BMF Title Bout: Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje

The symbolic BMF title is awarded by the UFC to fighters that they deem to be the toughest, grittiest and most violent fighters on the roster. Since Jorge Masvidal’s retirement, the belt has been vacant and is now up for grabs in a rematch between the number 2 and 3 ranked lightweights in the UFC.

Not to be confused with the Lightweight Championship, the BMF title is more of a promotional accolade for fighters considered to be the toughest in the world. The winner of this bout is likely to get awarded a title shot after Islam Makhachev and Charles Oliveira settle their business at UFC 294 later this year.

Their first fight was a four-round slugfest with leg kicks and counter strikes as its recurring theme. Towards the end, Poirier was able to time his punches off the leg kicks, which allowed him to score the knockout in the fourth round. Since then, both fighters have beaten all their opponents, except for the champions in Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev, while both have lost to number one contender Charles Oliveira.

While Gaethje has abandoned his reckless brawling style for a more measured approach, Poirier is one of the most technical fighters in the UFC, while also being among the toughest. We expect Poirier to gain an edge as damage accumulates over the course of the fight.