New Study: Ranking the NFL’s Most Reliable Receivers of 2025

by Patrick Catterall, November 05, 2025

Forget the hot takes, we wanted to know who really has the safest hands in football.

At the midway point of the 2025 NFL season, we analyzed every catchable pass to find out which players can truly be trusted when the ball’s in the air.

Our exclusive Sticky Hands Score ranks every wide receiver and tight end by how reliably they turn opportunities into completions.

How the Sticky Hands Score Works

The formula combines three key elements that reflect on-field reliability:

• True Catch Rate (TCR): How often a player catches catchable passes
• Drop Rate (DR): How often they fail to secure those chances
• Air Yards per Reception (AIR/R): The average depth of each catchable target

It also accounts for volume, rewarding players who maintain elite efficiency while handling tougher, deeper targets.

Key Takeaways

• Top Performer: Tee Higgins (CIN) leads the NFL with a +14.12 Sticky Hands Score, catching all 32 of his targets, many on deep routes averaging 23.8 air yards.
• Other Standouts: Justin Jefferson (MIN), Rashid Shaheed (NO), and A.J. Brown (PHI) also rank among the most reliable, combining perfect catch rates with challenging targets.
• Most Reliable Teams: The Eagles, Bills, and Vikings lead the league in pass-catching efficiency.
• Biggest Struggles: The Jaguars and Browns sit at the bottom, with Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC) posting the lowest Sticky Hands Score (-21.97) through Week 9.

NFL League Leaders in Catch Reliability

To give the full picture, Betting.us analyzed every wide receiver and tight end with at least 25 catchable targets and 5 games played. The table below shows the complete Sticky Hands Score rankings through Week 9 of the 2025 season — from the surest hands in the league to those still struggling for consistency.

Explore the full rankings below:

(Sortable and searchable for all 78 qualifying players.)

Highlights

Tee Higgins tops the list thanks to his combination of deep-route difficulty (23.8 AIR/R) and perfect catch efficiency. Justin Jefferson and A.J. Brown continue to dominate as high-volume, high-leverage targets, while Rashid Shaheed quietly cements himself as one of 2025’s most underrated deep threats.

NFL Team Reliability Rankings

Beyond individual performance, team reliability shows how efficiently offenses are converting catchable passes into completions. We combined every team’s total receptions and catchable targets for wide receivers and tight ends to calculate overall Catch Rate and Drop Rate.

Only the 78 qualifying players from our Sticky Hands Score dataset were included in this team-level analysis. This ensures results reflect consistent contributors rather than sporadic individual play from minor role players or situational targets.

Explore the full team rankings below:

(All 32 NFL teams ranked from most to least reliable.)

Highlights

The Eagles (99.0%), Bills (97.9%), and Vikings (97.4%) headline the league’s most dependable receiving corps, combining precision and consistency across the board.

At the other end, the Jaguars (82.2%) and Browns (87.9%) continue to battle inefficiency, with Jacksonville leading the NFL in drop rate at 14.9%.

Methodology

We analyzed Weeks 1–9 of the 2025 NFL season using FantasyPros Advanced Stats for wide receivers (WRs) and tight ends (TEs).

Our goal was to measure true pass-catching reliability among players whose primary role is receiving.

Running backs were excluded from this study to maintain a fair comparison across positions that consistently operate downfield and within structured passing routes.

Qualifying Criteria

• At least 25 total targets
• At least 25 catchable passes
• At least 5 games played

Key Metrics

• REC: Total receptions
• CATCHABLE: Total catchable targets (as defined by FantasyPros)
• True Catch Rate (TCR): Percentage of catchable passes caught
• Drop Rate (DR): Percentage of catchable passes dropped
• Air Yards per Reception (AIR/R): Measures target depth and difficulty
• Sticky Hands Score (SHS): Weighted rating combining TCR, DR, AIR/R, and target volume to capture overall receiving reliability

All scores were calculated directly from FantasyPros datasets with no manual adjustments.