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Where Will the Next AFL Expansion Team Be After Tasmania?

Will Brown by Will Brown, July 22, 2025

AFL stadium MCG with question mark

With the 19th AFL expansion team set to launch in 2028, there is already much speculation about where the 20th franchise will be located. Despite strong campaigns from Western Australia and South Australia, an argument is mounting to launch a team in one of two territories yet to be represented in the national league. In this guide, we’ve discussed the arguments behind each earmarked location and the challenges they may face in bringing a team to fruition.

Are There More AFL Expansion Plans?

Despite insisistence from local and federal governments that the expansion team in Tasmania is on track to launch, there are still several hurdles to overcome before the AFL expansion plans are a reality. Before speculating where the 20th team will be, we’ve provided an update on the drama unfolding in Tasmania.

We’ve then discussed the benefits and disadvantages of expanding the league further, before presenting arguments on each prospective new team location. This includes everywhere from Australia’s Capital Territory of Canberra to an overseas team in New Zealand.

Updates on the Expansion in Tasmania

Although it would be easy to believe that Tasmania’s plans to open the AFL’s 19th team, the Tasmania Devils, would be celebrated by locals, this isn’t the case. In fact, questions have been raised about whether the team will launch at all after considerable backlash regarding the plans to build a $615 million stadium in Macquarie Point, Hobart.

This comes amidst significant financial challenges for the state and political instability, with some believing the stadium build could bankrupt the state. While recent polls indicate that 69% of Tasmanians believe the stadium should be reconsidered, the AFL has stipulated that the construction of the 23,000-seat roofed stadium is non-negotiable.

The controversy has been a major point of ire in local politics, with the Tasmanian Parliament recently passing a no-confidence motion against Premier Jeremy Rockliff due to his support of the stadium. This forced the collapse of the leading Liberal Party, with an election set for early July seen as a gauge of locals’ support of the league.

Despite the upheaval, both the league and federal government have doubled down on their commitment to Tasmanian AFL expansion, believing the stadium’s construction will bring economic and social benefits to the region. For now, pundits will be watching the election closely to determine the fate of Tasmania’s first major sports team.

The AFL Expansion to 20 Teams: Pros and Cons

While an AFL expansion to 20 teams would surely make wagering at AFL betting sites, there are both advantages and disadvantages for stakeholders to consider before progressing. Logistically, the league will benefit from having an even number of teams, ensuring each team can compete weekly. Opening a new team also allows for greater representation of overlooked states, creates more opportunities for athletes, and can boost the local economy.

However, running an AFL team is expensive, and history has shown that no team is immune to bankruptcy. Not only is a significant investment required to build stadiums, training facilities, and transport infrastructure, but teams must be able to fund budding teams and lure talent until they become competitive and profitable. They must also build strong community support around teams, which can be difficult in low-population areas.

Canberra: The Australian Capital Territory

There’s a strong argument for why the AFL expansion 20th team should be located in Australia’s capital city, Canberra. Its population of 456,000 is almost double that of Hobart, with a strong local economy and high-earning residents making it perfect for a new AFL team.

There is also symbolism in choosing Canberra as the next franchise location, as it’s hard to argue that the AFL is a truly national sport without its capital being represented. Its Manuka Oval has 16,000 seats and regularly hosts Greater Western Sydney Giants (GWS) to sell-out crowds. However, it’s the support for GWS that may be a challenge.

The Giants are already considered to be a proxy team for Canberrans, so some may argue that the market has already been filled. The team has a long-term agreement with the ACT Government to host home games until at least 2032, so a new team may not be feasible until after then.

Rather than opening a 20th team in the city, it may be more feasible for GWS to move to Canberra rather than build a new fanbase from scratch. Nevertheless, Canberra’s modern infrastructure, AFL-loving population, and central location are just a few of many strong arguments that the capital is ready for its own representation.

A Northern Territory Expansion

The Northern Territory (NT) and its capital of Darwin are also vying to be considered as the next region to host a new AFL expansion team. The state is already home to 180 clubs across 13 minor leagues, with over 39,000 people playing across them. A significant percentage are also Indigenous Australians, with many of the pro-league’s Indigenous talent hailing from the NT.

That said, while the prospects of a team based in Darwin are romantic, it may not be economically feasible. Only 250,000 people live across Darwin and Alice Springs, making it hard to justify a stadium valued at between $200 and $500 million to build. A report from AFLNT, a local subsidiary of the league, found that a team would likely run at a $10 million annual loss.

It’s also likely that Alice Springs would require training facilities to nurture local talent, with estimates of that construction valued at around $55 million. Despite these challenges, the idea is backed by many in the AFL. A recent survey of national fans found a majority would support expanding into the NT for better representation of Indigenous talent, so the state and federal government may step up to foot the bill.

A Third Team for Western Australia

With a population of around 2.8 million people and more than 1 million Aussie Rules football supporters, Western Australia is perhaps best positioned to argue for the 20th team in AFL expansion plans. There are around 350,000 registered players in local teams, with two current teams, West Coast and Fremantle, among the most supported in the country.

Together, the existing Perth-based teams have nearly 160,000 registered members, though membership waitlists suggest that there is a strong demand for increased representation. Perth’s modern Optus Stadium could easily host a third team’s games, while outer-Perth regions are populous enough to attract a loyal fan base.

Perth’s mayor has already voiced local government support for a third team, and earmarked its 16,000-seat HBF Arena to undergo required renovations if it were approved. As for costs, Western Australia’s position as the nation’s resource sector hub could see it easily attract private investment for improved infrastructure.

Other benefits include increased scheduling opportunities for local games, which benefit the state’s time zone difference from eastern states. Considering the population, state capital, and existing infrastructure, we think it’s highly likely that Western Australia is home to the 20th AFL team.

Potential South Australian Team

Similarly to Western Australia, South Australia’s argument to cater to an AFL expansion to 20 teams is strong. The state is home to 1.8 million residents and 792,000 football supporters, with the Adelaide Crows and Port Adelaide Power backed by well-established fan bases. However, some challenges would need to be met to improve its viability.

Firstly, a new team may be hard to sell to the fans of the existing teams, who are known for their passionate loyalty. An outer-suburban team may likely be necessary to capitalize on the league’s regional allegiances, though this is still a risk. Another hurdle is the financial investment required to build a new stadium, with Adelaide Oval already well-used.

With Port Adelaide already struggling through financial difficulty in recent years, another club may struggle to survive during turbulent economic times. Regardless, there remains a possibility for expansion some time in the future, though it would need to put up a strong argument to outbid Western Australia.

Other Potential Markets

There are several other potential markets that, while unlikely, could surprise us by hosting an AFL future expansion franchise. The first is Newcastle, a coastal city located roughly 100 miles north of Sydney. The city has a strong economy, is home to 320,000 people, and an unrepresented legion of AFL players and fans.

However, the city already hosts a National Rugby League (NRL) team, which is wildly popular, so it may not be able to compete with this. There has also been speculation that, like the NRL, the AFL could look for overseas franchises in New Zealand or the Pacific. This, too, could be challenging due to the NRL’s dominance in these regions, so for now, we believe that the next AFL team will be local.

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