UFC 286 Overview Sports News

UFC 286 Overview: Fights Analysis, Predictions, Expert Picks

By Blake Roberts Founder & Editor in Chief Updated: 07 March 2023

Blake Roberts Founder & Editor in Chief

Blake Roberts is the founder of Betting.US and is currently heading the creative team as Editor in Chief. Born and raised in Morgantown, West Virginia, Blake is a great sports fan, with football and basketball being his favorite. He’s our trusted voice for all betting-related matters.

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March 2023 is one of the hottest months for fight fans, with four back-to-back UFC events scheduled to take place, including UFC 285 on March 4 and UFC 286 on March 19. With so many exciting bouts lined up, the stage is set for what looks to be one of the busiest months for Mixed Martial Arts. Several of the main card fights taking place in March have special significance and the best UFC sportsbook analysts have their predictions lined up. In this guide, we’ll go over UFC 286 in detail and discuss our expectations from the event, including analyses, predictions, and expert picks.

The UFC 286 card has been built around the main event, featuring the rematch between Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards for the Welterweight Championship. The two contenders have a long rivalry dating back to 2015 when Usman emerged victorious by unanimous decision. The second fight between the pair resulted in one of the greatest moments of 2022, where Leon Edwards knocked Kamaru Usman out in the fifth round. Their rubber match at UFC 286 will put the rivalry to rest while determining who the true welterweight king is.

The card also features a co-headline bout between the hard-hitting number three-ranked Justin Gaethje and surging newcomer Rafael Fiziev, currently ranked sixth in the division, who sees Gaethje as another obstacle on his path to the UFC Lightweight Championship. Justin Gaethje is coming off a knockout loss to then-champion Charles Oliveira and will need to rack up another win or two before being granted another title shot. On the other hand, Rafael Fiziev has been undefeated over six fights, the last of which was a perfect knockout of former champion Rafael Dos Anjos.

The card also features bouts between Joanne Wood And Luana Carolina in the women’s flyweight division, Gunnar Nelson vs. Bryan Barbarena in the welterweight division, and Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze in the middleweight division.

Kamaru Usman Vs. Leon Edwards Overview

Over the course of their careers, Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards have cleaned out the welterweight division of the UFC. Leon Edwards has an impressive fight record of 20-3, with one of the longest active win streaks in the division. In fact, since his last loss to Kamaru Usman, Edwards has been undefeated. Between 2015 and 2022, Edwards would face the very best contenders in the division and rack up win after win. Come UFC 286, he will be looking to keep his 10-fight win streak alive with another victory over Usman.

Edwards fights out of the Southpaw stance and specializes in a standup game heavily derived from kickboxing and Muay Thai. With a reach of 74”, he is one of the longer fighters in the division and uses his length to keep his opponents at range.

He pairs his reach with an impressive striking accuracy of 50%. Over the course of his career, he has landed 2.59 significant strikes per minute. In terms of defense, Edwards has proven to be one of the harder strikers to take down, with a takedown defense of 68%. His takedown defense is bound to come in handy against Usman, who relies on his wrestling to gain an advantage over his opponents.

Kamaru Usman is one of the most prolific champions in UFC history, having won the belt from Tyron Woodley in 2019. In a short span of time, he would go on to defend the title five times against the top of the welterweight division.

His multiple defenses and high-level performances quickly earned him the coveted top spot on the UFC’s pound-for-pound rankings. However, his win streak goes all the way back to his UFC debut against Hayder Hassan in 2015. At the time of his knockout loss against Edwards, Usman was on a surging 15-fight win streak.

Arguably, Usman was winning the fight against Edwards on points until the knockout in the last round. In their upcoming meeting, it’s likely that Usman will regain the championship if he is able to manage the distance and prevent Edwards from setting up a big knockout shot. For Leon Edwards to win without the knockout, he will have to press the action on Usman and ensure he outstrikes him on the feet.

Justin Gaethje Vs. Rafael Fiziev Overview

Justin Gaethje has gained a lot of popularity in recent years as one of the hardest hitters in the UFC’s Lightweight Division. With a record of 23-4, Gaethje is a fan favorite for his violent fight style that depends heavily on aggression, tenacity, and an unwillingness to back down.

In addition to having heavy hands, Gaethje is also one of the few fighters that have proven to be impossibly hard to knock out. In several of his past performances, he has shown that he can continue advancing on an opponent even after getting badly hurt. For his recent fights, he has worked closely with coach Trevor Whitman to develop a relatively safer fighting style to help him avoid taking unnecessary damage while still using his natural aggressiveness to his advantage.

In many ways, Fiziev is the perfect matchup for Gaethje as he is a decorated striker with a background in Muay Thai. The Azerbaijani shook up the UFC with his arrival and is yet to face defeat in the organization. As the old saying goes, precision beats power, and timing beats speed. If Gaethje resorts to his old tactics of wildly swinging for the fences, it’s a foregone conclusion that Fiziev will pick him apart and stop him before the closing bell.