AFC Championship Bengals VS Chiefs

NFL AFC Championship Expert Picks & Odds

By Blake Roberts Founder & Editor in Chief Updated: 27 January 2023

Blake Roberts Founder & Editor in Chief

Blake Roberts is the founder of Betting.US and is currently heading the creative team as Editor in Chief. Born and raised in Morgantown, West Virginia, Blake is a great sports fan, with football and basketball being his favorite. He’s our trusted voice for all betting-related matters.

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The Chiefs need a fit Patrick Mahomes

The biggest talking point before the game starts will be surrounding Patrick Mahomes’ ankle. The Chiefs quarterback has been the face of the NFL for the last few seasons, and it’d be a real shame not to see him take part in such a big game.

It has been confirmed that he suffered a sprained ankle in the match against the Jaguars, but he should feature in this game. He still managed 22 of 30 for 195 yards and two touchdown throws in the second half against the Jaguars, which shows his singular quality.

Mahomes has never done things on his own, of course. Andy Reid’s tactical acumen and Travis Kelce’s performance will be equally important. Kelce caught 14 passes against the Jaguars – there aren’t many tight ends in the league who can do that in a playoff match.

Of course, it will not depend entirely on these stars and their offensive prowess. Defensive tackle Chris Jones, who managed 79 pass rush wins in the regular season, will have to keep Ja’Marr Chase quiet.

The Chiefs also have to get over the psychological hurdles that pop up when they meet the Bengals – they’ve lost their last three games against the Bengals. The Chiefs have been going into the last few NFL seasons as the pre-tournament favorites, and they’ve even won the Super Bowl in 2020, but followed that with losses in the NFL final and AFC Championship final.

They’re not invincible, and the Bengals know that better than anyone. All the great teams need a few humblings along the way, but the Chiefs can’t make that a habit. This is their fifth straight AFC championship final game. They’ve got to get the job done against the Bengals – they’re still the odds-on favorites at most NFL sportsbooks.

The Bengals have nothing to fear

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has reiterated on a few occasions that he doesn’t see the Bengals as underdogs. He said that before the Bills game and was proven right. There’s certainly no strong reason to believe that they’re the underdogs when they face the Chiefs this week.

As mentioned earlier, the Bengals have beaten the Chiefs in the last three games between the two sides. All three games were close encounters, and the Bengals had to pull off an incredible comeback in the AFC Championship game last season, which is why they can’t get too ahead of themselves.

Other positives include Ja’Maar Chase and Tee Higgins’ performances in this fixture in recent meetings. Chase managed 97 receiving yards when the two sides met in December. He’ll need to pull off something similar if the Bengals want to get over the line in this game.

Burrow was outstanding against the Bills in the Divisional Round, with 23-of-36 passes for 242 yards and two touchdowns. He should be in top shape for this clash and has a habit of raising his game for the big occasions.

The Bengals have to show no mercy in this tie. They know they can beat a full-strength Chiefs side. They know they’ve got a great opportunity to make it to a Super Bowl again, with Patrick Mahomes not at full strength. They’re also not the favorites heading into this tie, which is a bettor’s dream.

Prediction

This has all the makings of another classic. Two of the hottest young quarterbacks in the NFL will be facing each other once again. In a short span of time, it looks like the start of a new rivalry. This is just the sort of matchup that all football fans dream of.

The Chiefs have been the most consistent NFL team in the last few seasons. They are almost always the team to beat, but no team enjoys beating them more than the Bengals. The temptation to go with Mahomes is always strong, but an unfit Mahomes isn’t as valuable. The uncertainty surrounding Mahomes swings this game in favor of the Bengals.